I used data from the past 16 years to estimate how many games you
will play the players on your fantasy roster. The first step was to determine
how many games a player at each position plays. For each position, I set up two
different criteria and averaged the number of games played. Because the data pool
was so large, I think is a pretty good estimate.
|
POS |
GAMES |
CRITERIA |
FREQUENCY |
|
qb |
12.6 |
GS = G |
180 |
|
qb |
11.0 |
15 att/game |
943 |
|
rb |
13.9 |
GS = G |
144 |
|
rb |
12.2 |
10 carries per
game |
600 |
|
wr |
14.7 |
GS = G |
340 |
|
wr |
14.5 |
3.5 reception per
game |
620 |
The next step was to calculate how many games you would play each player. A few
things to consider:
1. I assumed a 16 game fantasy schedule.
2. Starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, and 1 TE.
3. All players will have 1 bye week. I calculated the odds (1 in 8 chance per
starter) that your #3 RB or #4 WR had the same bye week as a starter, thus
requiring a 4th RB or 5th WR.
4. I don't know where the TE games played number comes from. Not sure why it
wasn't in table 1, but I think it's pretty correct. I must have calculated it,
but forgotten to put it in the first table.
5. I DID NOT factor in the possibility that your projected starter sucks and
you need a replacement.
6. These are averages. Take them as such. I am just trying to get a feel for
how many games I will play each player. Mainly, I wanted to know how important
each positions backups are.
7. The multiplier is the number of games played divided by 16. I might use this
to help guage relative worth when drafting. For example, my #3 RB and #4 WR
have similar multipliers. Therefore, I would consider them to be of equal
importance, and draft accordingly. This is only a small useful tool to help in
drafting. Many other things need to be considered first. I am just hoping that
this is a little bit helpful.
|
POS |
GP |
Multiplier |
|
QB1 |
11.5 |
0.719 |
|
QB2 |
4.5 |
0.281 |
|
RB1 |
12.5 |
0.781 |
|
RB2 |
12.5 |
0.781 |
|
RB3 |
5.7 |
0.356 |
|
RB4 |
1.3 |
0.081 |
|
WR1 |
13.5 |
0.844 |
|
WR2 |
13.5 |
0.844 |
|
WR3 |
13.5 |
0.844 |
|
WR4 |
6.4 |
0.400 |
|
WR5 |
1.1 |
0.069 |
|
TE1 |
13.0 |
0.813 |
|
TE2 |
3.0 |
0.188 |