Relationships Between a Team's Rushing and Passing Stats


by Michael Zangrilli unlucky@attbi.com


Data provided by www.football-reference.com


Often times, the argument is made that a strong passing attack takes pressure off of a RB, or that a strong RB opens up the passing game for success. This study takes a look at the correlations between team rushing and passing statistics, as well as between the team's feature RB's statistics and the passing game. Let me sum up the results rather briefly, and then you can look over the table and see for yourself.

1. Teams that throw more often run less often. Duh. (see #8 and #14)

2. The 2nd strongest correlation is between passing yards/attempt and rushing TDs. YPA is a pretty good measure of efficient passing, but I really have no idea how that translates into a lot of rushing TDs. (see #23)

3. That's it. Seriously. Everything else shows a pretty weak correlation. #1 RB does correlate well to YPA, but Marshall Faulk and the Rams (2000 and 2001) have really skewed the data. (see #37 through #40)

The table below gives the information obtained from a linear fit of the data. A positive slope indicates a positive relationship between the two variables. The R^2 value represents how close the fit is. A value of 1 is a perfect fit, and a value of 0 is no fit at all. For our purposes, we'd like to see something of at least .05 to .10 to consider some sort of relationship.

Abbreviations used: att = attempts, comp = completions, comp % = completion percentage, YPA = yards per pass attempt, YPC = yards per rushing attempt, #1 RB FP = team's #1 RB by fantasy points (6 pts for TDs, 1 pt. per 10 yards), #1 RB PPG = #1 RB by points per game, with a minimum of 8.

My theory on why we don't see stronger relationships: The players make the stats. Some teams have talented RBs but horrible QBs, some teams have great QBs and WRs, but terrible RBs. The talent of the players far outweighs the opportunities created by defensive mismatches. It may be true that great RB does open up the passing game, but if the players in the passing game aren't good, they won't put up great numbers.

# Independent (x-axis) Dependent (y-axis) slope +/- R^2 restrictions
1 comp YPC - 0.026
2 att YPC - 0.066
3 comp % YPC + 0.004
4 yards YPC - 0.006
5 ypa YPC + 0.030
6 TDs YPC + 0.029
7 comp rush yds - 0.148
8 att rush yds - 0.260
9 comp % rush yds + 0.000
10 yards rush yds - 0.054
11 ypa rush yds + 0.057
12 TDs rush yds + 0.004
13 comp carries - 0.173
14 att carries - 0.273
15 comp % carries - 0.000
16 yards carries - 0.070
17 ypa carries + 0.045
18 TDs carries - 0.002
19 comp rush TDs - 0.004
20 att rush TDs - 0.051
21 comp % rush TDs + 0.051
22 yards rush TDs + 0.014
23 ypa rush TDs + 0.180
24 TDs rush TDs + 0.009
25 comp #1 RB FP + 0.001
26 att #1 RB FP - 0.017
27 comp % #1 RB FP + 0.071
28 yards #1 RB FP + 0.013
29 ypa #1 RB FP + 0.093
30 TDs #1 RB FP + 0.037
31 comp #1 RB PPG + 0.002 miminum of 8 games played by RB
32 att #1 RB PPG - 0.017 miminum of 8 games played by RB
33 comp % #1 RB PPG + 0.080 miminum of 8 games played by RB
34 yards #1 RB PPG + 0.016 miminum of 8 games played by RB
35 ypa #1 RB PPG + 0.109 miminum of 8 games played by RB
36 TDs #1 RB PPG + 0.038 miminum of 8 games played by RB
37 ypa #1 RB PPG + 0.214 minimum 15 PPG
38 ypa #1 RB PPG + 0.282 minimum 16.8 PPG
39 ypa #1 RB PPG + 0.086 minimum 15 PPG excluding 2000 AND 2001 RAMS
40 ypa #1 RB PPG + 0.047 minimum 16.8 PPG excluding 2000 AND 2001 RAMS
41 att #1 RB PPG + 0.006 minimum 15 PPG
42 att #1 RB PPG + 0.137 minimum 16.8 PPG
43 ypa #1 RB PPG + 0.001 maximum 10.6 PPG